JERUSALEM Ehud Barak finally has done the right thing. Themeandering path he took to arrive at his decision to resign andsubmit himself, but not the Knesset, to new elections, was asmanipulative as to put a Byzantine court to shame.
But it was the correct decision because full-blown elections-which in the end would not have changed much in the party makeup ofthe Knesset-was the last thing the country needed in the middle of amini-war.
What revealed the two sides of Barak-the leader with the basicallycorrect instincts, and the inept tactical schemer and manipulator-was that he could and should have taken the same step a fortnightago. At that time he surprised the Knesset and his own Cabinetministers and Labor faction by declaring his support for thedissolution of the Knesset and early (that is to say in a half yearor so) elections.
The fact that he is trailing badly in the polls behind Likud'sBenjamin Netanyahu is not new and also was there a fortnight ago. Sotoo was the fact that his own party's doves might challenge him forthe Labor leadership.
The worrisome thing about Barak's consistent failure to read thepolitical map correctly and in time, which has led to hiscontradictory policies and statements, is that it has characterizedhis conduct of the diplomatic process with the Palestinians, too.
Since by now we have become more than merely acquainted with Barakthe manipulator, it is important that due attention be paid to aseemingly minor sentence in his resignation address Saturday night.He said the new election would be "the true national referendum" onthe peace process."
Nothing could be further from the truth. The late Yitzhak Rabin'scommitment to submit to national referendum any negotiated agreementwith the Syrians and Palestinians was intended to permit theelectorate to give him a free hand in negotiating the preliminarystages of such agreements. But it also was a clear signal to theSyrians and the Palestinians that no Israeli premier, even underextreme American and international pressure, could make concessionsthat would not be ratified in a referendum.
The election of a prime minister, which will revolve primarilyaround the issue of the candidates' personalities, or of the Knesset,is no substitute for such a referendum on the most important issue ofthe last quarter century. Rabin's commitment was reiterated by bothNetanyahu and Barak.
Any attempt by Barak now to insist that his re-election should besubstituted for submission of an initialed agreement to referendumshould be seen as a flagrant breach of trust. Unless Barak reverseshimself clearly on that point it should be taken as a major reason tovote against him.
Shocked politicos and commentators have interpreted Barak's lateststep as a determination to freeze Netanyahu out of the competitionand to scotch any incipient rebellion against him within Labor. Butit also should be seen in its implications on Barak's policy ofexcessive self-restraint in response to the ongoing killing ofIsraelis.
It should be obvious that there is not the slightest chance ofBarak coming to those elections in 60 days with an agreement withYasser Arafat that stands even a glimmer of a chance of approval bythe electorate.
On the other hand, continuation of the daily killings withoutstepped-up retaliation is a sure formula for Barak's losing theelection against Ariel Sharon or any other Likud candidate. Atraumatized electorate will demand to see the heads of several of themilitary and political leaders of the intifada, who have hithertoenjoyed such blatant immunity from Barak.
Either Arafat will come to his senses and put an end to theintifada during these 60 days, or Barak will be compelled to resortto extreme retaliatory measures, for his own political survival.
Given the fact that the Knesset makeup will not change, the onlyother alternative will be that Arafat-and Labor-will get a prime-minister-elect Sharon, who will offer a riven Labor participation ina government of national unity under his own leadership.
Yosef Goell writes a column for the Jerusalem Post.
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